It’s about that time of year when golf’s majors start popping up everywhere. With that comes the first, and best, The Masters. Held annually during the second week of April, it’s that delightful time of year when everyone imagines how great their own backyard would look peppered in florescent pink azaleas and meticulously trimmed grass. Good luck with that one by the way.
Each year at work I hold a small but entertaining Masters pool. It adds to the never-ending excitement come Masters time, although it doesn’t take much to get me up for Augusta National’s main event.
Each year proves to be just as difficult honing in on a favorite, despite a majority of the same top players being touted as the next Masters champion. Who’s playing well? Who’s game fits ANGC best? Will it finally be Rory’s year?
Well look no further. I will tell you who wins the 2019 Masters. And it ain’t Rory (sad face).
While Dustin Johnson leads many lists of Masters favorites, as he does most weeks, his so-so putting under pressure worries me. He’s played fantastically as of late, with a win in Mexico at the WGC and a T5 last week at The Players. Despite pounding drives into the Florida keys, Dustin also has shown us how questionable his putting can be. He’s got that dreaded swipey cut stroke as seen on the 18th green at Chambers Bay that doesn’t exude much confidence. I mean, ol’ Dustin racked up three eagles in one(!) round in 2015 and only finished the week at -9. For all that’s great about Dustin, Augusta hasn’t been his friend. DJ – you’re out.
Next is the sizzling hot Rory McIlroy. While I’d love to see this kid complete the slam and put to bed all the negative memories from 2011, Augusta is just not built for Rory. Like DJ, the most important club in the bag consistently plagues Rory and can easily de-rail whatever advantages he creates with his meteoric drives and crisp iron play. How often have we seen Rory miss inside five feet only to slouch sideways while gently waving his hand towards the side motioning a golf ball which didn’t behave? For all the times Rory poses down an approach which falls deadly close, his 99th one-putt percentage rank on Tour is alarming. He combines a stellar 30th in proximity to hole and 16th in greens hit in regulation; however this should suggest he be ranked much higher on one-putt percentage, no? ANGC not only requires precision, but precision in every aspect. Kills me to say it, but it’s not Rory’s year – and may never be.
Scarred-for-life bookies continue to show Tiger Woods huge respect on odds, currently giving him 14/1 on most sites for the 2019 Masters. Sounds crazy, but he was actually posting 12/1 this time last year. These gracious odds coming before his near misses at The Open and PGA Championships, and of course who could forget his amazing win at the Tour Championship in August. Tiger will always draw attention, but if he is to win another major in his career, it won’t be the Masters. Wayward tee shots plus hot-and-cold putting still haunt his game and will eventually be his undoing. In 2005, Tiger’s last Masters win, runner-up Chris DiMarco put much into perspective at the time saying Tiger is comparatively so long off the tee that while DiMarco would have a 7-iron into a green, Tiger would be hitting a wedge. However nowadays, much has changed. Fast forward to 2019 and Tiger’s length off the tee has been nullified by the likes of many top ball-smashing pros. Look at it this way – there are 44 players currently on Tour hitting it farther than Tiger on the reg. I don’t have stats from his glory days, but I don’t imagine it’s remotely close to that number. I can envision Tiger winning an Open Championship much easier employing 2-iron stingers which run for days mixed with the world’s best trajectory control. Sorry bud, but it will be great to watch him compete nonetheless.
On to boy wonder. Despite Jordan Spieth’s consistently solid play at Augusta (Golden Bell aside), his current game looks to be in shambles and more fragile than your knockoff Omega. At one time Jordan may have been the best putter in the world, but it sure feels like a lifetime ago. Currently Jordan is 78th on Tour in strokes gained putting – which was once his difference maker. He’s coming off a cut at The Players and a T54 at the WGC-Mexico. In fact, he’s fared no better than a T35 at the Farmers in January this year. Further to that, in the seven events he’s played since the Mayakoba Classic in November 2018, he’s missed the cut thrice. 37.5% cut rate and toss in Augusta’s meticulous greens? That’s a recipe for disaster.
What now? Who’s left? Fowler? Nah. Ain’t happening. Justin Thomas? I could see it. He was playing quiet well at the start of the year, but has stumbled a touch as of late logging T30 and T35 in his last two events. For my money, which means a lot considering how frugal I am, the winner of the 2019 Masters will be …
Brooks Koepka.
Hold your eye rolls. Sure he’s back-to-back US Open champion and defending PGA champion and what feels like a cop-out choice, but that’s not what makes BK the eventual winner here. Augusta National is much different than many of the venues chosen by the USGA and PGA, but Brooks’ skillset provides an opportunity to shine through all of this. Augusta is a shot-shaping course which primarily favors a right-to-left ball flight off the tee. While Koepka is a fader of the golf ball, he’s also a POWER-fader who he hits it so far he’ll be able to overpower much of Augusta’s prestigious design.
Koepka’s ranked 9th on Tour in driving distance which allows him a multitude of options off the tee. Conversely he ranks 124th in driving accuracy, which could be detrimental if it were not for Augusta’s relatively harmless rough. Then again, from the rough, Koepka is also 11th on Tour on approaches ranging from 50-125 yards. Add to that Brooks is also ranked 5th in approach shots from the fairway between 175-200 yards. What’s all this mean? Well, Brooks can hammer the ball into oblivion and knock it close if he misses the fairway. OR he can choose less club off the tee and still throw darts from a ways back. Is it just me, or does that sound dangerous?
But I’ll tell you what’s going to be his bread and butter this year – it’s the fact Koepka leads the Tour in going for the green. His aggressive style of play, especially on par 5s where much of the hay is made at ANGC, plays right into his favor. He’s getting after it.
Finally, Brooks has shown us in back-to-back years, he may be one of the game’s best clutch putters. There are few metrics which can validate this, but if you were to watch both of his US Open wins, he consistently drained must-makers. If you’ve played the game at all, you will understand a breaking five-footer looks a lot longer when there’s any sort of pressure on you. For whatever reason, Brooks doesn’t succumb to it. In fact, he loves it. He’s said multiple times he relishes being in those pressure cooker moments. You can’t teach that – and more so, you’re not going to catch Brooks if you’re waiting for him to falter down the stretch. Watch out now.
Written by Chris Heavenor
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